Elon Musk admits to cheating in video games. It makes sense he found the cheat code for real-world capitalism too.
SpaceX filed its S1 form Thursday. It aims for a record $1.7 trillion valuation. The numbers are wild. The admissions are embarrassing. The market doesn’t seem to care.
What’s actually in the filing?
Forget the hype. Just look at the business model.
You want shares in a rocket company? Sure. They made $18 billion in revenue. They lost $5 billion doing it. Losses are climbing. Revenue is too. High hopes. Big risk. Your advisor raises an eyebrow. Maybe you win. Maybe you lose.
But wait. There’s a twist. The CEO is really into AI now.
SpaceX merged with xAI earlier this year. It was rushed. xAI is tiny. Musk called it the “smallest” of the big players. That merger caused most of the new losses. But who cares? It’s AI.
Here’s the plan. Launch data centers into orbit starting in 2028 really? Musk has promised space infrastructure before. It usually happens… later.
Does it even work in zero-G? The IPO filing says: no one knows.
“The conditions of space on such AI hardware have not been tested, by us anyone else.”
Components fail. They stay broken. No IT guys fly up with wrenches.
Why do they fail? Everything. Solar flares. Cosmic rays. Micrometeorites. Orbital trash. Vibration. Thermal shock. Oh yes. The filing also admits satellites don’t live as long as the tech they carry. Think about that for a second. A data center on a timer.
Ignore the risks though. Right? Musk believes in it. That matters more than engineering physics doesn’t it?
He claims a $26.5 addressable AI market. Space and Starlink only add up to $2 trillion. AI wins. Even if his product comes in “Spicy Imagine Mode” and “Unhinged Voice Mode.”
What’s the danger? Legal trouble. Regulatory fires. Reputational damage from deepfakes. Minors involved? Yes. That’s in there too. International investigations happening right now. The lawyers who wrote the S1 filing are probably weeping in corners. But hey. Not mentioned the whole Hitler thing.
There’s also $3 billion in new gas turbines. More pollution. More lawsuits from environmentalists. Musk wins most legal battles though. Except the one where he ignored a court order and went to China. A jury said he shouldn’t have sued anyway. Who counts the losses?
If this were a normal company your financial advisor would tell you to run.
The “Never Bet Against Musk” Doctrine
SpaceX is setting aside 30% of shares for regular people. Retail investors love a name. They love a legend. Fundamentals are secondary.
There is a mantra out there. Five words. Never bet against Elon Musk.
Peter Thiel started it. Peter Diamandis repeated it. Banks echo it. It’s religious. It explains away the Cybertruck. It justifies buying Twitter. Then turning Twitter into X. Then folding X into xAI. Then shoving that into SpaceX.
It is the most expensive sunk cost joke in business history.
Musk mastered this long ago. He dances on a tightrope while building it behind him.
Remember early Tesla? He sold preorders before the prototype existed. The Model S didn’t have wheels yet. It worked.
Now the Cybertruck is a liability. Weird shape. Low sales. Recalls because doors might fall off. China is making better EVs for cheaper. Europe is boycotting. Tesla’s first ever revenue decline happened last year. Investors are scared SpaceX is becoming Musk’s new favorite child.
But the playbook remains. Squeeze more cash from the company to let him stay. Pivot to a new dream.
Robotaxis. Humanoid robots. The Optimus bots fall over. They look cool briefly. They don’t make money yet.
“These demonstrations look impressive near-term, but generate no real revenue. Musk can postpone infinite revenue projections indefinitely,” said Tim Farris of TMF Associates.
Investors see what they want. It’s a Rorschach test for believers.
Can you still bet against him? Yes. You can short Tesla stock. Down 5% this year so far. You could have bet on the DOGE scheme failing too. One guy made 30% predicting disaster.
Cracks appear. But Musk just needs to hold on a bit longer.
If the AI bubble holds next month when SpaceX hits the public market his army of fans might push his net worth past a trillion dollars.
And then what?
Musk keeps 85% of the voting power at SpaceX. He’s untouchable as CEO. Imagine Tesla dying quietly inside the SpaceX hull. Imagine Optimus bots fixing satellite data centers in orbit.
No one stops him.
Is being a trillionaire just another glitch in the system?
